NFC South playoff race Bucs have easy path but Falcons Saints still alive

Just two weeks are left in the regular season, and the NFC South is still close enough that one game separates first and third place.Acro s the league, the average gap between first and third is 3.1 games, and only the AFC South with a three-team tie at 8-7 is more closely contested at the top.Tampa Bay stands alone atop the division at 8-7, with Atlanta and New Orleans still alive at 7-8. There's a clear hierarchy of just how much each team needs to do to claim a division title:The can clinch by winning either of their remaining games, at home Sunday vs. New Orleans or at the in Week 18.The can clinch by winning their two remaining games and having the Bucs lose at the Panthers in Week 18.The can clinch by beating the Saints and having the Bucs lose their two remaining games.ADVERTISEMENT "Hey," you say, Muggsy Bogues Jersey "there wasn't even that much math involved."Alas, there will be. There are (gasp) wild-card po sibilities for Aron Baynes Jersey all three teams still in contention, wild as that seems.There are four games with direct relevance to the final NFC South standings: Saints-Bucs and Falcons- this weekend, then Saints-Falcons and Bucs-Panthers in Week 18. Those four games yield 16 different sets of non-tie outcomes the Bucs win the division in 12 of those scenarios, and the Falcons and Saints two each.The NFC South champ is now locked in as the NFC's No. 4 seed, which means an opening date with the or , the best of the conference's wild-card teams.Here's a look at each team's situation.Bucs: Just win one, clinch the divisionTampa Bay's four-game win streak has given the Bucs control of the division, and a good shot at winning it for the third straight year, a franchise first. The New York Times playoff simulator has them with an 84% chance to make the playoffs. In the Saints and Panthers, they face two teams they've already beaten the first Saints game in New Orleans was a 26-9 win, one of their more lopsided this season, but it Paul Watson Jersey also was a one-score game with four minutes to play.If the Bucs lose both games, they're still technically alive for a wild card at 8-9, but they'd need a world of help, with a le s than a 1% chance to make it by the NYT calculations. Multiple teams would need to lose out, and Bucs fans would be rooting for AFC outcomes to help set up a strength-of-schedule tiebreaker needed to grab the last spot. (Go ahead and win one of the next two).NFL Rankings: Browns rise, Chiefs fall, Bucs top 10? Saints: Must win out to stay aliveLast week's lo s to the hurt their chances, but the Saints still have a path to first place: beat the Bucs and Falcons, two teams they've lost to this season, and get the Bucs to lose to the two-win Panthers in Week 18. Then the division title is theirs, for the first time in the post-Drew Brees era. Losing to the Bucs on Sunday eliminates them from any playoff contention.Beating the Bucs in Tampa would keep the Saints in contention for a wild card as well. If they win out and finish 9-8, they have a 23% chance of making the playoffs, even if the Bucs beat the Panthers for the division title. They'd need the Rams or to lose their remaining two games, as well as the and losing one each. Crazier things have happened.Falcons: Could even win division at 8-9Having spent a year as The Division Whose Champ Had A Losing Record, the NFC South would really like to have a team with nine or 10 wins, but there's a model in which an 8-9 team could once again host a playoff game.The Matt Thomas Jersey beneficiary of that would be the Falcons. In one scenario out of the 16 remaining, they can lose to the Bears on Sunday to drop to 7-9 and still win the division by beating the Saints and having the Bucs lose their last two. It's a three-way tie at 8-9, and the Falcons win by having the best division record at 4-2.The Falcons can also win the division at 9-8 if they win out and the Bucs lose out. And like the Saints, they'll be alive for a wild card if they beat the Bears, with a 27% chance to make the playoffs. Again, they need the Rams or Seahawks to lose two, the Packers and to lose one each in the simplest of paths to the postseason.There you have it. The Bucs have full control over the division, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Jersey but as a team that dropped six out of seven games at one point, no win is a guarantee, so anything can happen here in the final two weeks.Greg Auman is FOX Sports' NFC South reporter, covering theBuccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints. He is in his 10th season covering the Bucs and the NFL full-time, having spent time at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.